Property Estimation

The Grand Duchy of Luxembourg's real estate market is going through a post-peak correction that began in late 2022, after more than a decade of nearly uninterrupted growth. According to the Housing Observatory and STATEC, residential prices fell by around 14% between the Q3-2022 peak and Q4-2024, before stabilising in the first half of 2025.

This correction is mainly explained by the ECB monetary tightening (policy rate rising from 0% to 4.50% in 18 months), which reduced household borrowing capacity. Nevertheless, structural fundamentals remain solid: demographic growth of +1.5%/year, 12,000 additional residents in 2024, a dynamic labour market (unemployment rate ~5.6%) and a structurally deficient supply estimated at 3,000 homes per year by the IDEA Foundation.

The Housing Sector Plan (PSL) and the Pacte Logement 2.0 reform aim to accelerate construction, but effects remain slow. The transaction recovery observed since early 2025 (+18% in volume in Q1-2025 vs Q1-2024) confirms that the floor has probably been reached in many municipalities.

In Luxembourg, three main families of methods coexist for estimating property value:

• The hedonic method: used by STATEC and the Housing Observatory, it decomposes the price based on objective characteristics (surface area, location, age, energy performance, floor, parking, etc.) via a regression model. Our tool relies on coefficients published by the Observatory and updated quarterly.
• The comparable method: a classic in property valuation (EVS/TEGoVA standard), it involves adjusting prices from recent transactions on similar properties. Notarial deeds registered with the Registration and Domains Administration (AED) constitute the reference source.
• The DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) method: mainly used for investment properties, it discounts future net cash flows. Luxembourg institutional investors (SIF/RAIF funds under CSSF supervision) systematically use it for due diligence.

Our estimator combines the hedonic method (for the theoretical price) with recent comparable data (for market anchoring), thus providing a reliable value range.

Many factors affect property values in the Grand Duchy, with variable weightings depending on the property type:

• Location and municipality: this is the primary factor. Luxembourg City (Belair, Limpertsberg, Kirchberg) shows average prices per m² of EUR 10,000-14,000, compared to EUR 5,000-7,000 in the North (Clervaux, Wiltz). Proximity to transport (tram, CFL station), international schools and employment zones (Kirchberg, Cloche d'Or) creates significant premiums.
• Surface area and layout: net habitable surface (as defined by the Grand-Ducal regulation of 25 February 1979) remains the dominant quantitative criterion. Price per m² decreases with size (decreasing returns effect).
• Energy performance (EPC): since the 2010 energy passport reform, the energy class measurably influences prices. A class A property trades at 15-30% more than a class G-I property of comparable surface and location, according to Housing Observatory studies.
• Condition and renovations: fitted kitchen, modern bathroom, triple glazing, dual-flow VMC and heat pump are valorising elements. Conversely, an asbestos-cement roof or old oil boiler generates discounts.
• Floor and orientation: for apartments, upper floors with clear views and south/south-west orientation benefit from premiums of 3-8% compared to ground floor.

Let us take an apartment of 85 m² in Esch-sur-Alzette, Belvaux district, built in 2012, energy class C, with 1 indoor parking space and 1 cellar:

• Average price per m² in municipality (Q1-2025): ~EUR 6,200 (source: Housing Observatory)
• Class C adjustment (reference D): +5% → EUR 6,510/m²
• Age adjustment (2012 vs median 2005): +3% → EUR 6,705/m²
• Indoor parking: +EUR 25,000 (market flat rate)
• Gross estimate: 85 × 6,705 + 25,000 = EUR 594,925

Our tool refines this estimate with complete hedonic coefficients and the latest registered comparables, providing an indicative range that you can compare with an expert opinion approved by the Ministry of Housing.

Reminder: an online estimate does not replace a certified valuation (REV/TEGoVA report) required for inheritances, judicial partitions or mortgage guarantees with Luxembourg banks.