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Methodology, coefficients, data sources and back-test results. This page is public: any user can verify the quality and limitations of our model.
The model combines a reference price per m² (by municipality or neighbourhood, from the Observatoire de l'Habitat via data.public.lu) with multiplicative adjustments reflecting the property's intrinsic characteristics. This is not an AVM (Automated Valuation Model) in the banking sense — it does not have the completeness of notarial deeds.
The approach is log-linear:
Each adjustment is an additive percentage (positive or negative) applied to the base price. The coefficients come from the Observatoire de l'Habitat, Spuerkeess analyses and professional valuation practice in Luxembourg.
| Source | Data used | Update frequency | Access |
|---|---|---|---|
| Observatoire de l'Habitat | Price/m² per municipality, Lux-City neighbourhoods, hedonic model | Quarterly | data.public.lu |
| STATEC | Annual residential price indices, CPI | Annual | statistiques.public.lu |
| Spuerkeess | Energy class impact on sale price | Annual | Annual publication |
| Land Registry | Transaction volume per municipality (number of deeds) | Quarterly | Via Observatory |
| Property listings | Aggregated asking prices (rentals, sales) | Continuous | Via Observatory |
Each coefficient is a percentage applied to the reference price per m². The confidence level reflects the statistical robustness of the source.
| Feature | Coefficient | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surface < 40 m² | +8 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| Surface 40-55 m² | +4 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| Surface 55-70 m² | +2 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| Surface 90-120 m² | -2 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| Surface 120-150 m² | -4 % | Observatoire hédonique | Medium |
| Surface > 150 m² | -6 % | Observatoire hédonique | Medium |
| Sous-sol | -12 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| RDC | -7 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| 1er étage | -3 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| 4e-5e étage | +3 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| Dernier étage | +5 % | Observatoire hédonique | High |
| Attique / penthouse | +10 % | Observatoire hédonique | Medium |
| Neuf / livré récemment | +8 % | Données VEFA LU | High |
| Rénové | +5 % | Transactions 2024 | Medium |
| À rafraîchir | -5 % | Transactions 2024 | Medium |
| À rénover | -12 % | Transactions 2024 | Medium |
| Gros travaux | -20 % | Pratique professionnelle | Low |
| Classe énergie A | +5 % | Spuerkeess / Observatoire | High |
| Classe énergie B | +3 % | Spuerkeess / Observatoire | High |
| Classe énergie C | +1 % | Observatoire | High |
| Classe énergie E | -3 % | Observatoire | High |
| Classe énergie F | -6 % | Observatoire | High |
| Classe énergie G | -10 % | Observatoire | High |
| Parking intérieur | +4 % | Transactions (≈30-45k€) | High |
| Pas d'extérieur | -4 % | Observatoire | Medium |
| Grand balcon | +3 % | Observatoire | Medium |
| Terrasse | +6 % | Observatoire | Medium |
| Jardin | +8 % | Observatoire | Medium |
| Terrasse + jardin | +12 % | Observatoire | Low |
Comparison between the actual reference price and the model's estimate. Actual prices are derived from ranges observed in the relevant municipalities.
| Municipality | Area | Energy | Actual price | Estimate | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 75 m² | C | 810.000 € | 803.250 € | -0.8 % |
| Luxembourg | 50 m² | B | 560.000 € | 555.900 € | -0.7 % |
| Esch-sur-Alzette | 85 m² | D | 440.000 € | 592.280 € | +34.6 % |
| Dudelange | 90 m² | E | 380.000 € | 547.200 € | +44.0 % |
| Differdange | 100 m² | D | 420.000 € | 622.200 € | +48.1 % |
| Ettelbruck | 72 m² | B | 415.000 € | 484.272 € | +16.7 % |
| Strassen | 110 m² | C | 980.000 € | 1.175.020 € | +19.9 % |
| Bertrange | 65 m² | D | 560.000 € | 676.195 € | +20.7 % |
| Hesperange | 80 m² | A | 790.000 € | 1.131.600 € | +43.2 % |
| Mersch | 95 m² | D | 530.000 € | 694.735 € | +31.1 % |
| Walferdange | 68 m² | C | 520.000 € | 623.356 € | +19.9 % |
| Remich | 55 m² | B | 350.000 € | 382.910 € | +9.4 % |
| Pétange | 80 m² | E | 340.000 € | 445.440 € | +31.0 % |
| Steinfort | 90 m² | D | 550.000 € | 670.680 € | +21.9 % |
| Niederanven | 120 m² | A | 1.050.000 € | 1.725.000 € | +64.3 % |
| Leudelange | 70 m² | C | 610.000 € | 617.400 € | +1.2 % |
| Mamer | 85 m² | D | 660.000 € | 815.575 € | +23.6 % |
| Sandweiler | 75 m² | B | 620.000 € | 778.050 € | +25.5 % |
| Mondorf-les-Bains | 95 m² | D | 510.000 € | 665.380 € | +30.5 % |
| Junglinster | 80 m² | D | 500.000 € | 640.640 € | +28.1 % |
| MAPE (mean absolute error) | 25.8 % | ||||